Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.267644 0.302410 0.340105 0.384033 0.433848 0.488620 0.553457
2025-10-26 0.216505 0.262739 0.316641 0.384209 0.466780 0.564576 0.689462
2025-11-02 0.170184 0.220033 0.282018 0.364954 0.473333 0.610590 0.798327
2025-11-09 0.134311 0.183955 0.249424 0.342408 0.471644 0.645755 0.899563
2025-11-16 0.111007 0.160352 0.229062 0.332214 0.484067 0.700834 1.036326
2025-11-23 0.092670 0.140598 0.210772 0.321683 0.493925 0.753439 1.178285
2025-11-30 0.082012 0.130307 0.204442 0.327454 0.528426 0.847193 1.397794
2025-12-07 0.069415 0.115041 0.188176 0.315065 0.532279 0.893539 1.549331
2025-12-14 0.060347 0.104054 0.177024 0.309075 0.545338 0.956372 1.738697
2025-12-21 0.052849 0.094571 0.166937 0.303194 0.557359 1.018770 1.937340
2025-12-28 0.048506 0.089952 0.164530 0.310432 0.593790 1.129890 2.244862
2026-01-04 0.043456 0.083306 0.157510 0.307961 0.611394 1.208156 2.501442
2026-01-11 0.039453 0.078234 0.153016 0.310288 0.640007 1.314825 2.840703
2026-01-18 0.036507 0.074820 0.151263 0.317890 0.680752 1.453077 3.274130
2026-01-25 0.032111 0.067845 0.141422 0.307209 0.681200 1.506751 3.530853
2026-02-01 0.027903 0.060673 0.130188 0.291828 0.668886 1.530593 3.723645
2026-02-08 0.025014 0.055951 0.123531 0.285626 0.676479 1.600952 4.042579
2026-02-15 0.022405 0.051490 0.116837 0.278312 0.680279 1.663070 4.353383
2026-02-22 0.021036 0.049682 0.115895 0.284518 0.718067 1.814365 4.926926
2026-03-01 0.018792 0.045496 0.108839 0.274655 0.713768 1.858909 5.220945
2026-03-08 0.017117 0.042468 0.104147 0.270054 0.722424 1.938717 5.630426
2026-03-15 0.015622 0.039682 0.099679 0.265356 0.730070 2.017153 6.052284
2026-03-22 0.014853 0.038641 0.099462 0.271968 0.770011 2.191835 6.799703